Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
