Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
